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Don's 38th Prediction We recommend that you NOT purchase Saturday, Nov 22, 2003 - From Don: To the lottoreport.com: I hope you have printed the chart I developed for you by now. The purpose of the chart is to show you the difficulty in the pick 3 game. I have provided some cursory comments about the chart and will do so as this column continues. The HYPOTHETICAL play is now over. In providing the chart to you, I felt it was applicable to devise a real world IMAGINARY play to describe how the chart can evaluate actual drawing results. A real world imaginary play is simply actual results with imaginary dollars. Thus, hypothetical analysis can be accessed by the player to show success or a lack of it.In the IMAGINARY play provided, I selected 27 numbers on the chart. These numbers were the sum of 5, 9, 11, and 16. This would represent 12.2% of the numbers (220/27). This would also represent 22.5% (120/27) of the combination numbers. In my imaginary play, I began by playing all the 27 outcomes. After 3 days, I wrote that it became obvious I could not obtain a profit doing this. Thus, I had to re-evaluate how to play as to the amount of numbers and amount wagered. We now know the actual results of the pick 3 day draw. One of the numbers, 342 occurred on 11/21 or 8 draws away from the day I began the IMAGINARY play. Using the betting strategy I adopted would have been a horrible disaster for the pocketbook. Furthermore, I would have missed the actual number because I had to discount the amount of numbers played. I believe this experiment, using the chart, is very important for players to understand if they want to have a chance for profits using my recommendations. Here is why. 1) Playing just one number in the profile would have provided a player a 27 to 1 chance to win 80 or 250 to 1. 2) The type of wagering strategy used is critical to success 3) A correct outcome can be forecast using statistics 4) Waiting to play after a number is forecast can be an opportune wagering method. 5) Each days outcome is relevant to the occurrence of the next days draw These are critical aspects of the methods I use to provide YOU opportunity. I might also add that the chart is one of the LEAST accurate mechanisms I have to do this. I have performed thousands of calculations on risk versus reward using the chart alone. You won't win with the chart alone but it is an essential tool for you to access risk and conduct your own evaluations about the game. Recently, this year, I have developed some very accurate statistics about the game. I am always searching for statistics that 1) arrive quickly and 2) have a low amount of potential outcomes so that players can avoid losing REAL dollars. Thanks for reading lottoreport.com Don Tuesday, Nov 18, 2003 - From Don: To the lottoreport.com: I began an IMAGINARY recommendation (day draw only) to utilize a chart I have provided to readers to examine the difficulty of winning at the pick 3 game. None of the 27 numbers I originally selected have occurred in 4 Pick 3 DAY draw days. One of the numbers arrived in the night game merely as a coincidence. Monday, Nov 17, 2003 - 11:10 AM - From Don: (But I received Don's email Saturday afternoon) To the lottoreport.com: Dawn has provided a tremendous graphic representation of all possible outcomes in the pick 3 game. I believe this chart is a must for anyone who has interest in the game, especially from a wagering standpoint. I hope you have taken a few minutes to print the chart. To evaluate the effect of the chart I am performing a HYPOTHETICAL play to evalaute different aspects of the chart in a real world situation. In the DAY Pick 3 game on Saturday 11/15 the result was 591. This does not meet the criteria of one of the 27 numbers I selected for a HYPOTHETICAL play involving the chart provided. So far duirng the IMAGINARY wagering I have lost $27 the first day, $18 the second day, and another $18 today. Although I minimized the total numbers from 27 to 18, you may notice that NONE of the selected numbers are in the originally selected 5,9,11,16 sums on the chart. So, the actual odds I quoted earlier, a 90% chance to lose playing seems to be true to form.My total IMAGINARY wagers for three days now are $63. If I play another $18 with a 90% chance to lose I will assure myself a loss of $1 even if I "win". Thus, I must reduce the numbers played again. So, I am going to play only the 9 numbers contained in the sum of 11 group. However, you may notice that even if I am correct, I will now only have an $8 profit. With only nine numbers selected out of the 220 I will now have only a 4% chance to win and a 96% chance to lose. Thus, over time, the game can be devasting. Obviously, this is a horrible situation to be in, knowing I have an almost a guaranteed loss if I continue and this is what thousands of pick 3 players face daily. This is why if you review my REAL recommendations you will find I strive for a very short time frame for a number within a profile to occur. I use a variety of tools and expectations, aside from the chart provided. Typically though, I start out with about the same chances, even on a REAL recommendation about 20% chance to win and 80% chance to lose. But, through testing many events such as this one, I attempt to provide the best opportunity for players to not win but profit. Keep reading lottreport.com for updates. Don Nov 15, 2033 - Update to Imaginary Play - To the lottoreport.com: The result in yesterdays pick 3 game was 1-1-2. So, even the largest group of HYPOTHETICAL dollars was not successful. The largest group of original sums as you may recall was 27 numbers of the 220 listed on the chart. For three days, none of the selected sums were correct choosing 16% of the total outcomes. You may also notice that none of the 27 original numbers arrived in the DAY or NIGHT draw although I am only providing this IMAGINARY play in the DAY draw. Although I am going to take this IMAGINARY play to conclusion, I think the readers are already in tune with the idea that even if this play arrives today it will not be successful. I am wagering too much in the early stages with only a 16% probable outcome. So, one criticism of my strategy might be that too many numbers are played but a more valid criticism is the time it might take for a number to arrive. Reviewing the chart provided you can acquire a very real visual expectation of how bad I can be hurt financially playing this game. That is the purpose of playing IMAGINARY dollars in a real world situation like the pick 3 game.For, today then 11/15/2003, I would be playing the 11 and 16 sum, combination only for $1 each. There is a good chance the HYPOTHETICAL wager will fail from a profit standpoint. That is the intention of this experiment. To show the reader that even though the chart is an extremely well done graphic representation of the game, the chart alone will NOT provide success. I urge you to continue reading lottoreport.com for updates of this HYPOTHETICAL OR IMAGINARY WAGER. One more thing, this is he FIRST and only IMAGINARY pick 3 play I will provide. All the rest of my writing will be NON-IMAGINARY AND BASED ON MUCH MORE THAN THE CHART PRESENTED. Don Nov 14, 2033 - Update to Imaginary Play - To the lottoreport.com: In my imaginary play for 11-13-03, the correct number was 589. This did not meet the criteria set forward in my imaginary play. A more in depth review of the chart will show the following. The chart is made to be looked at vertically. However, horizontally you may notice that the base or bottom row has the largest group of numbers or 146 total numbers. The second row up from the bottom has 124 numbers. The third row up has 112 numbers. Thus, 38% of all the outcomes are in the bottom 3 rows looking at the chart horizontally. Now lets go back and review the results in the day game for the last seven days. Tonights number of 589 is in the biggest group at the base. 602 is on the next row up. 926 is again in the largest group at the base. 978 is also in that base group. So is 984. Before that was 222 which is 7 rows up and 392 which is on the second row up. Six of the last seven outcomes in the day pick 3 draw have been in the largest groups at the bottom of the chart. That is a proper representation in that the biggest group of numbers should arrive first. You can do the same process with the night game. You will achieve similar results. The point of this information is that a certain expectation of numbers is possible using what will probably happen. As we lower our expectation of what is probable we lower our expectation of victory. That is one reason I am conducting this experiment with hypothetical dollars. It is yet to be determined what the conclusion will be but I hope you will find it interesting and lead to a better understanding of the game which might improve your wagering. Keep reading lottoreport.com to see what happens. Don 11-13-03 - Editorial & An Imaginary Play - From Don - First Message Posted 1 AM - A second message follows - posted 9:10 AM - To the lottoreport.com: Dawn has done an excellent job publishing one of the charts I use to review the pick 3 game. If you play the pick 3 game, I urge you to print a copy of the chart. I will discuss the chart in detail in future columns. The chart is critical to players that seek to evaluate the risk they are taking with their hard earned dollars. Seldom will you find information pertaining to all the outcomes in a lottery type game. Why is that? It seems obvious to me. No one would play the game!! Also, you may want to have some fun with the chart. Make several copies. Put a circle around 20 or 30 numbers listed on the chart and write down the winning number each day. At the end of a month, it will be easy to evaluate how you would have done.In my studies, I have performed these calculations quite a bit. I have a very good idea of how you are going to do playing between 20 and 30 numbers which of course is far more than you would play normally. Remember that circling 30 numbers on the chart represents only about 14% of the total outcomes depending on which numbers are circled. I estimate that IF you select 30 numbers on the chart for 6 draws per day for 4 weeks or 24 draws total you MIGHT hit 3 days. If you played $1 any for 24 draws times 30 numbers you would have wagered $720 to win, (depending on the number selected and that the bet is any) $480 at the absolute most with a hit ratio of 12.5%. (24 draws and hit 3 times) I believe you can prove to yourself that NOT playing the game most of the time can be a good investment! I also think it can be a great deal of fun playing IMAGINARY dollars when you are losing. Thanks for reading lottoreport.com. Don 2nd Message - Posted 9:10 AM - Nov 13 - To the lottoreport.com: Late last night, (11-12) I offered a challenge to play IMAGINARY dollars using the chart and evaluating how you do. To show you how you might do that, I thought I might play in an IMAGINARY way with you using the chart as an example. I urge you to print the chart as it easier to refer to it. One thing about this IMAGINARY scenario is that only ONE number will be correct in the field of the 220 presented on the chart. I have chosen 27 in my IMAGINARY use of the chart. What is important to me now is the accuracy of the numbers I have selected as I have latitude on the correct day. The actual odds are still the same at 220 to 1 but if I am correct in my number selection I have improved my odds to 27 to 1. I will evaluate the outcome of this experiment daily. It begins today, 11/13/2003 in the DAY draw only. My first wager is $27 of IMAGINARY dollars. Thanks for reading lottoreport.com. Don 2nd Message - 11/11/03 - OK, OK! I posted the Day draw stats too for you. And OK again ... Yes, I'll keep this page current for a little while just so you can see how it goes. (If you haven't read my first message, read it then you'll understand this message.) 11-6-03 -Editorial - About Those Repeat Numbers - From Don - To the lottoreport.com: In the pick 3 game, certain distinctions are more recognizable than others. When you place past winning outcomes in a computer and program it to "look" at certain events, it is much different than a conclusion a player might develop. Recently one of those conclusions might be the occurrence of the exact same number coming out in close proximity. In my opinion, players must remember that the same odds to the player occur on each draw because each draw is an independent event. An independent event is simply an event that is not effected by past events or numbers that have occurred previously. So, each number occurring, whatever it might be, is equally as likely as any other number. I think that fact must be placed in some context though. Since you multiply 10 times 10 times 10 to determine the likelihood of a number occurring in exact order such as 348, the odds are the same each day. Yet, can 348 occur three or four or five days in a row? How likely is it? Actually, it is just as likely but that is not the same as just as probable. Since there are 999 other numbers that can occur, for 348 to occur every day the other 999 cannot. When the other 999 numbers never occur something is inherently incorrect from a probable view. In accessing the computer evaluation mentioned previously, you may notice that after 3138 days the digit 5 in the night pick 3 game has occurred 299 times as the first digit, 296 as the second digit, 290 as the third digit. Thus, there is less than 9 occurrences separating them in 3138 days or a percentage that is incredibly small. I conclude from that statistic that no number or digit or pair emerges with a regular pattern to earn profits. In a real world gambling situation like the pick 3 game, to pick 348 exact on 10/31 and 11/1, we know that $1 each wagered exact for 2 consecutive days earns a pay out of $1000 on a $2 wager. If you just played, in this case the day draw, you could then play for over 3 years playing 312 draws a year (just one game) completely "free" or with the profits from the game. If you are playing the same number, 348 you can hang around 3 years playing every day in anticipation of its return. So, what is wrong with this picture I have presented. Let's go back to picking 348 to arrive exact for 2 days consecutively and suppose that every player in Texas is playing all exact outcomes, in other words every possible outcome. Each day, the lottery collects $1000 from the players. Each day, the state returns $500 to the winner. Each day, the lottery earns $500 for every $1000 wagered. If $500, 000 is wagered every day, the state will gladly pay out $250,000 because that means it will profit by $250,000 each and every day it has the game. Now, $250,000 per day, I think I could live on that!! Now you may conclude that this is not important to YOU because you have already earned your $1000 and can play for 3 years "free." But, the odds tell me that this will only happen to YOU on average every 999 times. The pick 3 game is a game wherein an average means little when you are spending money because few have an unlimited bank account to play this game. Just waiting 3 times the average, which is very low, you could lose for 3 years running or in the case of 999 about 9 years, which by the way is NOT abnormal at all. Additionally, you can conclude that YOU are very likely NOT to be the person who selected 348. (999 has never been drawn) Finally, my analysis of the game concludes that playing certain events for a short duration at specific times and then abstaining from playing the game at all gives players the absolute best opportunity to win, both in the short term and long term. I enjoy hearing your comments and criticisms. Thanks for reading lottoreport.com. Don |
