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About the April 8, 2025 changes to Mega Millions
On April 8, 2025, the odds will decrease from
302,575,350
million-to-one to 290,472,336 million-to-one. Only because
they reduced the number of bonus numbers to chose
from - 1/25 to 1/24. Hardly worth anything!
Additionally,
the cost of a single ticket increases to $5 which
guarantees fewer tickets will
be sold due to the price increase.
Fewer tickets sold means "less coverage" in lottery
language and longer rolls.Also, included in the cost of the
ticket is the Megaplier feature. Now you don't buy it,
it's included in the cost of the ticket - it's forced on you!
Based on the $5 colossal cost increase and the fact that
they
don't/won't sell enough tickets to put a dent in the total
combinations in the game, one could easily arrive at a conclusion
that the Mega Millions group intends for there
to
be fewer
jackpot winners and fewer low tier winners.
Speaking of which ... here's a fact ...
Out of an est 104 draws per year ...
in 2013 - there were 11 MM Jackpot Winners ...
in 2014 - there were 9 MM Jackpot Winners ...
in 2015 - there were 8 MM Jackpot Winners ...
in 2016 - there were 8 MM Jackpot Winners ...
in 2017 - there's been 6 MM Jackpot Winners
in 2018 - there's been 5 MM Jackpot Winners
in 2019 - there's been 7 MM Jackpot Winners
in 2020 - there's been 5 MM Jackpot Winners
in 2021 - there's been 6 MM Jackpot Winners
in 2022 - there's been 6 MM Jackpot Winners
in 2023 - there's been 10 MM Jackpot Winners
in 2024 - there's been 4 MM Jackpot Winners
in 2025 - there's been 1 MM Jackpot Winners
(As of 3/16/25)
The Add On Game "Just The Jackpot"
Is No Longer Being Offered ...
This was a rip off in the first place. Did you
know
that they NEVER paid one prize. All
reveues
from this "game" was 100% states profit.
This wager was "legal" highway
robbery ...
worse
than a "suckers bet." IMHO!
The Matrix Change ...
The matrix remains the same - pick 5 from 70 numbers.
However, the bonus number matrix changed from
picking one in 25 numbers to
picking 1 from 24 numbers.
Sadly, the rule still offers a break-even prize. Also,
the rule still rounds down which matters if prizes
are reverted to pari-mutuel prizes. And worst
of all, they do not specify how much a jackpot
winner will receive if he wins. The Finance Group
will make that determination. This means they could
have $100 million in the prize pool but only pay
$90 million. I think this is wrong, very wrong.
Now review the odds and the prize amounts
beginning with the April 8, 2025 drawing...
| New Odds |
Effective
April 8, 2025 |
All Mega Millions prizes
are set prize amounts
(Except California)
|
IF Megaplier Is
|
| Odds |
If You Match ...
|
-- Prize --
No
Megaplier
|
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
| 1 in 290,472,336 |
Match 5 Plus Mega Ball |
Wins Jackpot |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
| 1 in 12,629,232 |
Match 5 No Mega Ball |
$1 Million |
$2 Million |
$3 Million |
$4 Million |
$5 Million |
| 1 in 893,761 |
Match 4 Plus Mega Ball |
$10,000 |
$20,000 |
$30,000 |
$40,000 |
$50,000 |
| 1 in 38,859 |
Match 4 No Mega Ball |
$500 |
$1000 |
$1500 |
$2000 |
$2500 |
| 1 in 13,965 |
Match 3 Plus Mega Ball |
$200 |
$400 |
$600 |
$800 |
$1000 |
| 1 in 607 |
Match 3 No Mega Ball |
$10 |
$20 |
$30 |
$40 |
$50 |
| 1 in 665 |
Match 2 Plus Mega Ball |
$10 |
$20 |
$30 |
$40 |
$50 |
| 1 in 86 |
Match 1 Plus Mega Ball |
$7 |
$14 |
$21 |
$28 |
$35 |
| 1 in 35 |
Match 0 Plus Mega Ball |
$5 |
$10 |
$15 |
$20 |
$25 |
|
|
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- |
- |
- |
- |
|
Effective April 8, 2025
Read 2025 Rule, pdf, Click here
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Noteworthy ... Interesting changes since inception that
tells all one needs to know about the states motive ....
(Mega Millions previously know as Big Game)
| Texas Began Playing Mega Millions in Dec 2003 |
| Matrix |
Rule
Change |
Allocated From
Sales
To
Fund Jackpot |
Odds of
Winning the
Jackpot |
|
Pick 5/50 & 1/25 |
9/6/96 |
.2898 |
1 in 52,969,000 |
| Pick 5/50 & 1/36 |
1/15/99 |
.3204 |
1 in 76,275,360 |
| Pick 5/52 & 1/52 |
5/17/02 |
.3169 |
1 in 135,145,920 |
| Pick 5/56 & 1/46 |
6/24/05 |
.3180 |
1 in 175,711,536 |
| Pick 5/75 & 1/15 |
10/22/13 |
.32577 |
1 in 258,890,000 |
| Pick 5/70 & 1/25 |
10/28/17 |
.376509 |
1 in 302,575,350 |
| Pick 5/70 & 1/24 |
04/08/25 |
.2763 |
1 in 290,472,336 |
|
As you can see from this chart, with each MM change, the
odds increased,
except for the 2025 change. Instead of
increasing the odds, they increased the cost
of a ticket to a whopping $5.
The truth is, with the increased cost, there will
be fewer winners in all
prize
categories because
fewer players will buy tickets.
Personally, I think it's sad that the states can offer games to
entice players to spend their money for what is most likely
equivalent to throwing their money in the trash can.
In Conclusion ....
Like Powerball, I will cut my spending on this game.
In fact, I may just quit because I'm tired of losing.
The only way to stop the lotteries is for People to
speak up - rebel and/or protest. Our elected officials
have no idea the lotteries are taking advantage of the people
in the manner that they are. For the most part, People
don't understand odds, probabilities and allocations.
If they did, they would quit or start a protest!
--------
Mega Millions
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