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About the Oct 28, 2017 changes to Mega Millions
On Oct 28, 2017, the odds will increase from
258,890,000
million-to-one to 302,575,350 million-to-one.
Additionally,
the cost of a single ticket increases to $2 which
guarantees fewer tickets will
be sold due to the price increase.
Fewer tickets sold means "less coverage" in lottery
language and longer rolls.
Based on the colossal increased odds and the fact that
they
don't/won't sell enough tickets to put a dent in the total
combinations in the game, one could easily arrive at a conclusion
that the Mega Millions group intends for there
to
be fewer
jackpot winners and fewer low tier winners.
Speaking of which ... here's a fact ...
Out of an est 104 draws per year ...
in 2013 - there were 11 MM Jackpot Winners ...
in 2014 - there were 9 MM Jackpot Winners ...
in 2015 - there were 8 MM Jackpot Winners ...
in 2016 - there were 8 MM Jackpot Winners ...
and in 2017 - there's been 6 MM Jackpot Winners
(As of 10/23/17)
A New Add On Game "Limited Extension"
To Mega Millions ...
They will be selling a "Just the Jackpot" (JJ) ticket for $3
but each ticket contains 2 sets of numbers making each set of
numbers worth $1.50. Like the name implies, the ONLY
way this ticket wins is if you match all numbers drawn.
There will be NO low tier prizes paid on this wager.
It has its own playslip.
VIP ... From "Just the Jackpot" sales, 50.2012% is
allocated to the MM jackpot prize fund. The balance
of JJ sales is pure profit for the state. Remember,
they don't
pay low tier prizes.
At start-up of the new game, only 6 states committed
to playing Just the Jackpot. They are Georgia, Massachusetts,
Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota & Texas. However, Kansas,
New Jersey, New York, New Mexico, Virginia, Wisconsin
& Wyoming have committed to add it to their game too.
Currently called a "promotion,"
it can be discontinued at
any time. This wager is "legal" highway
robbery ... worse
than a "suckers bet." IMHO!
The Matrix Change ... More Bonus Numbers
The matrix changed from picking 5/75 to picking 5/70.
The bonus number matrix changed from picking 1/15 to
picking 1/25.
Reducing the pick 5 numbers from
75 to 70 is how they
can tout it's "easier to win $1 million."
Let me ask you,
how often do you match 5 numbers
playing Lotto, Cash5 or
Triple Chance?
Yep - that's what I thought - not often if EVER. HUH? The "odds"
barely decreased in the prize categories that did not include
matching the bonus number but the odds INCREASED in all
Prize Categories that included matching the bonus number.
Sadly, the rule still offers a break-even prize. Also,
the rule still rounds down which matters if prizes
are reverted to pari-mutuel prizes. And worst
of all, they do not specify how much a jackpot
winner will receive if he wins. The Finance Group
will make that determination. This means they could
have $100 million in the prize pool but only pay
$90 million. I think this is wrong, very wrong.
Now review the odds and the prize amounts
beginning with the Oct 31, 2017 drawing...
| New Odds & Prize Amounts |
Effective
October 28, 2017 |
All Mega Millions prizes
are set prize amounts
(Except California)
|
IF Megaplier Is
|
| Odds |
If You Match ...
|
-- Prize --
No
Megaplier
|
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
| 1 in 302,575,350 |
Match 5 Plus Mega Ball |
Wins Jackpot |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
| 1 in 12,607,306 |
Match 5 No Mega Ball |
$1 Million |
$2 Million |
$3 Million |
$4 Million |
$5 Million |
| 1 in 931,001 |
Match 4 Plus Mega Ball |
$10,000 |
$20,000 |
$30,000 |
$40,000 |
$50,000 |
| 1 in 38,792 |
Match 4 No Mega Ball |
$500 |
$1000 |
$1500 |
$2000 |
$2500 |
| 1 in 14,547 |
Match 3 Plus Mega Ball |
$200 |
$400 |
$600 |
$800 |
$1000 |
| 1 in 606 |
Match 3 No Mega Ball |
$10 |
$20 |
$30 |
$40 |
$50 |
| 1 in 693 |
Match 2 Plus Mega Ball |
$10 |
$20 |
$30 |
$40 |
$50 |
| 1 in 89 |
Match 1 Plus Mega Ball |
$4 |
$8 |
$12 |
$16 |
$20 |
| 1 in 37 |
Match 0 Plus Mega Ball |
$2 |
$4 |
$6 |
$8 |
$10 |
Just the Jackpot (JJ) - A $3 Ticket - No Low Tier Prizes Paid On This Wager
Trash ticket IF you don't match all numbers drawn including the bonus number. |
| 1 in 302,575,350 |
Match 5 Plus Mega Ball |
Wins Jackpot
ONLY
|
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
Effective Oct 28, 2017
|
|
Noteworthy ... Interesting changes since inception that
tells all one needs to know about the states motive ....
(Mega Millions previously know as Big Game)
| Texas Began Playing Mega Millions in Dec 2003 |
| Matrix |
Rule
Change |
Allocated From
Sales
To
Fund Jackpot |
Odds of
Winning the
Jackpot |
|
Pick 5/50 & 1/25 |
9/6/96 |
.2898 |
1 in 52,969,000 |
| Pick 5/50 & 1/36 |
1/15/99 |
.3204 |
1 in 76,275,360 |
| Pick 5/52 & 1/52 |
5/17/02 |
.3169 |
1 in 135,145,920 |
| Pick 5/56 & 1/46 |
6/24/05 |
.3180 |
1 in 175,711,536 |
| Pick 5/75 & 1/15 |
10/22/13 |
.32577 |
1 in 258,890,000 |
| Pick 5/70 & 1/25 |
10/28/17 |
.376509 |
1 in 302,575,350 |
|
As you can see from this chart, with each MM change, the odds increased,
and the amount allocated to the jackpot increased. They want you to believe
that sales are so great, that the jackpot grows accordingly. Not true. Look
at MM's rolls - sales and jackpot amounts - to see how untrue it is. Click here.
The truth is, with the increased odds, there will be fewer winners in all
prize
categories allowing more money to be allocated to the jackpot.
Thus, it can grow to higher levels to entice more play.
Personally, I think it's sad that the states can offer games to
entice players to spend their money for what is most likely
equivalent to throwing their money in the trash can.
I especially think it's sad that a game like this can still
offer "break-even" prizes.
For those who read the rule, you'll notice that they
say the prize pool is 55% of sales BUT this is not really
true. They withhold 5% to go into the various reserve accts.
In the end, they will most likely pocket that 5%.
In Conclusion ....
Like Powerball, I will cut my spending on this game.
In fact, I may just quit because I'm tired of losing.
The only way to stop the lotteries is for People to
speak up - rebel and/or protest. Our elected officials
have no idea the lotteries are taking advantage of the people
in the manner that they are. For the most part, People
don't understand odds, probabilities and allocations.
If they did, they would quit or start a protest!
--------
Mega Millions
Draw sales by state
Total Sales & Roll Amounts
Mega Millions vs
Powerball Sales
Compare number of tickets
sold based on the $1 and $2
price of tickets. (PB vs MM)
Megaplier
Players/States Profit Loss
Megaplier Sales by State
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